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Whilst this does reduce potential income, the risk is greatly reduced, and if your probabilities are inaccurate it will not strip as much money away from you relative to the full bet. The main drawback of this betting system is that it relies on having a belief of how likely your horse is to win a given race. Complex algorithms, the foundation of such predictors, take into account a range of past data which can be quite accurate. Another interesting point to take into account is the Favourite-Longshot bias , where both individuals and markets tend to overvalue the chances of underdogs and undervalue the chances of favourites.
So there you have it, statistics can help give you the best chance to leave the track with a little bit more weight in your back pocket. Interestingly enough, the statistical models used in betting that are behind what I have discussed today are often used to exploit the share market, with many companies making large profits of these principals. But absolutely i think anyone can benefit from reading this, even if it is just to get a bit on an idea of strategies that could potentially be profitable, and at-least an appreciation for the complexities of such strategies, and the potential power for such mathematics in a wider application.
Cool post! Horse racing in spring. Deciphering the world of betting is no simple task. October 8, Categories Class of Posted by njolly. Previous Previous post: Hiding in plain sight! Next Next post: Indigenous information informs intelligent solutions.
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Now the first few times you place a bet you may not have a win. To explain this, consider tossing a coin. However as you toss the coin more and more times, the results should get closer and closer to a spread of heads and tails. This is known as the law of large numbers. Hence the more races we bet on that we expect to make a profit from… the closer our budget will approach a profit the profit we expect given the probabilities.
Now we know when it becomes profitable to bet, but how much should we bet? Our entire budget? A quarter? This equation, which forms the basis of the Kelly betting system, suggests an amount to bet on a horse given the odds, the probability you think it has of winning and your total budget. It can be mathematically proved that this system, assuming you have accurate probabilities, produces maximum income.
Betting the amount given by the equation will maximise your income if your probabilities are sound. Well, a common way to reduce the risk of each bet is to bet half or a quarter of the amount suggested by the equation. Whilst this does reduce potential income, the risk is greatly reduced, and if your probabilities are inaccurate it will not strip as much money away from you relative to the full bet. The main drawback of this betting system is that it relies on having a belief of how likely your horse is to win a given race.
Complex algorithms, the foundation of such predictors, take into account a range of past data which can be quite accurate. Another interesting point to take into account is the Favourite-Longshot bias , where both individuals and markets tend to overvalue the chances of underdogs and undervalue the chances of favourites.
So there you have it, statistics can help give you the best chance to leave the track with a little bit more weight in your back pocket. Danny had been using a system of betting that his girlfriend who had a Masters degree in Mathematics from Stanford had developed to pick out the second most likely horse to win a race. She developed this system in order to take advantage of the higher expectation of betting on the second best horse arising from parimutual betting. When Danny noticed that it was the second best horse that had been winning consistantly, he suspected that the races were being fixed, and took advantage of it.
Parimutual betting is performed at horse tracks all over the globe. Rather than a professional gambler determining the proper odds for a race based on knowledge of the horses and experience , this system allows bettors to determine the odds by themselves. We'll give a simple example of a payout system where only bets for the winning horse pay off money.
Suppose that the track is running a 5 horse race, and say that bets are placed as follows. We can see that Parimutual betting guarantees the house a profit, since it always pays out exactly what it took in minus the cut of course, we're assuming the cut covers the cost of operation and no laws interfere.