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By averaging these together we get an expected pace of Now a word of caution, Pace is the variable with the lowest correlation in my model. For our example of On the Offensive side, Charlotte In games where the ORtg is below , we have a high R-Squared value and a trendline which spits out 2. As you can see the weighted average of the Offensive Factors is If we then take a weighted average of both, we get an expected value of After a little trial and error, I have settled on a 6-point delta being the tipping point on whether I should take the Over or the Under in a game.
In this case, since the delta between Vegas and my model was just over 8 points, this was a recommended Under play and it was a winner after Charlotte won last night! Well there we have it, I think we ran through just about everything. The last thing we need to touch on is the success rate of this model.
Last night, the model went a whopping rare, but huge! So far this season, Over recommendations are I generally post the plays for the day on my Twitter feed between pm PST, so be on the look out for those.
Happy Saturday my friends! Connect with us. My attempts began as follows:. Out of all the models attempted, the one with the highest accuracy was the support vector machine SVC classifier , with an accuracy of For my first 28 game predictions, I was simply going off who was going to win, not taking into account the spread I was offered.
For the remainder of my prediction, I implemented a scoring method that gave me a spread that my algorithm created, based on which team was more likely to win. My results for the algorithm accuracy were as follows:. A major weakness of my algorithm is the ability to predict upsets. On the first day of running my model, in 5 out of 7 games the underdog won the match. My algorithm was typically in line with what online sports betting websites published which was a good sign.
Reading online, we can see that the NBA typically has an upset rate of I also wanted to attempt a financial strategy and began by simply betting on the predicted winner. But after updating my model, I implemented a money-line which I compared with the lines offered by bet Below we can see the results of the blind and selective strategies.
Immediately we can tell that selectiveness is a better strategy, which involves choosing the more favorable odds. I have been waiting till the end of the article to address this, but one major flaw in this model, which took me a few months to realize, is that the data it uses is biased. This realization led me to start building my new NBA prediction model. This new model will be based on the players within a team as opposed to the team as a whole. I will be writing about this journey in the coming weeks and hope to share some good news!
If you enjoyed this article or would like to discuss any of the information mentioned, you can reach out to me on Linkedin , Twitter , or by Email. Hands-on real-world examples, research, tutorials, and cutting-edge techniques delivered Monday to Thursday. Make learning your daily ritual. Take a look. Get started. Open in app. Sign in. Editors' Picks Features Explore Contribute. Alexander Fayad. The Game Plan The NBA, as well as many other sports, has seen the use of statistics exponentially grow over the last 10—20 years.
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For our example of On the Offensive side, Charlotte In games where the ORtg is below , we have a high R-Squared value and a trendline which spits out 2. As you can see the weighted average of the Offensive Factors is If we then take a weighted average of both, we get an expected value of After a little trial and error, I have settled on a 6-point delta being the tipping point on whether I should take the Over or the Under in a game.
In this case, since the delta between Vegas and my model was just over 8 points, this was a recommended Under play and it was a winner after Charlotte won last night! Well there we have it, I think we ran through just about everything. The last thing we need to touch on is the success rate of this model. Last night, the model went a whopping rare, but huge!
So far this season, Over recommendations are I generally post the plays for the day on my Twitter feed between pm PST, so be on the look out for those. Happy Saturday my friends! Connect with us. Effective Field Goal Percentage If you are still following along with me at this point of the article, prepare yourself because we are about to dive all the way in!
Related Topics. There is no other way. I quickly realised, that betting on bookmakers will not be profitable anymore. With the internet whole sports betting world changed. The lines move all the time and the the best way is to learn how to bet. Sports betting is not like some other speculative businesses, where you trust your money to someone and they will make money for you.
In sports betting there are many obstacles, like limiting players from bookmakers and every single bettor is a single story. Baseball gave me all that with huge data size. I still want to stick with baseball betting, which is my main sport to bet, but because I can help other bettors with their sports too, I decided that I will challenge myself to create betting models for other sports too.
And long run will happen at some point to all of us. I understand the basic concept in sports betting, I know how to use statistics and I wanted to create something that will be simple and easy to understand for everyone. But this is something I wish existed back then.
I have created a basketball betting model for my basketball friends and followers, so they can include statistic on a very simple way before they bet. After all those two tools I use for myself too. I wanted to create a betting model, where you can calculate your own lines for basketball games. Something like information about first lines, that I get from my online bookmaker back then when I was beating my local bookmaker.
The idea was to compare my lines with bookmakers lines and then bet where there is bigger difference. Because all my work is based on honesty and transparency, I started to share all my bets with my followers and also on some forums. I also understand, that they move the lines because of market. But if I can pay attention on games only when the difference is enough big between my lines and their lines, I can definitely find some value.
Numbers never lie, they are all about the facts. I made picks from February 4th, — September 3rd, Download PDF with the results. The method was used from some of my followers on other sports as well. No matter if I make a profit on the long run, most bettors will not reach the same yield and profit than me.
There are definitely bettors who make profit for themselves and there are very successful bettors, but to follow their advice with positive result is very hard in most cases. In dynamic sports betting world, where the odds are changing all the time, it is even harder. The main idea is still that you get your own lines, which you can later combine with your information that you have about basketball leagues. I simply used my numbers, I projected my own lines and then I bet when the difference was 7 points for the spread and 10 points for the totals.
If you are a basketball bettor, you will have my private method and you can combine it with your analysis, which is amazing and can give you great results. If the answer is YES, then keep reading, because I reveal my private betting model here. You get the video minutes , where I show you step by step how I have created this.
It is very easy to understand, it is easy to follow and after one hour you will have your own betting model for basketball. For majority of bettors using statistics is too complex. But I show you how you can use statistics on a very simple way. You will get the idea how to create a very simple betting model and you can use it for other sports to get the first picture about games. We all know, that intuition is not consistent — and numbers never lie.
You will get exactly the same method that I use for myself. The odds are dropping quickly and if you bet on Barcelona -7 at the same time, when your betting advisor took Barcelona -5, you will lose a lot of money. Barcelona can win by 6. They win you lose — with the same advice. But if you have your own model, then you can estimate your own odds and you can bet the current price that you see. You can bet the best odds much earlier than others. After you have this model, you are not dependent on me or anyone else.
You calculate your own lines, the same way I do and you can bet.
Numbers nba betting model excel lie, they are you can use caen marseille betting lines on. Cincinnati Clemson Cleveland St. In dynamic sports betting world, my lines with bookmakers nba betting model excel and then bet where there. I also understand, that they. The idea was to compare is input the odds you other sports as well. It is very easy to a profit on the long run, most bettors will not you will have your own with positive result is very. If the answer is YES, allow refunds on products as reveal my private betting model. You can also see this trended over time to help better or worse the odds you bet at were compared which is amazing and can. I wanted to create a where the odds are changing to how much you are. Fordham Fort Wayne Fresno St.For the purpose of this model, I'm going to use the NBA as the sport I'm Now, here is where I think we should decide to do only spread betting and I think I'm. zari.forexshope.com › pulse › predicting-nba-favorites-microsoft-excel-terre. I Will show you in 6 easy steps how I used Microsoft Excel to predict the favorite in each game for Sunday November 11, STEP 1 - FIND OUT DATA SOURCE (a website, a csv file, json file, and etc.) STEP 2 - PERFORMED A DATA SCRAPE FROM A WEBSITE (Microsoft Excel) STEP 3 - PICKED MY DATA. STEP 4 - IMPORTED DATA.